Abstract
AbstractThe conflict between agricultural water resources and socio‐economic development is a global problem. Accurate evaluation of coordinated development of agricultural water resources and socio‐economic factors and risk mitigation is necessary for sustainable development under uncertainty. In order to accurately evaluate the coordination between agricultural water resources and socio‐economic development under uncertainty, an evaluation method was applied in this study by coupling an analytic hierarchy process method with an uncertainty analysis method. The evaluation method, including selection of criteria, data collection, determination of indicator weights, evaluation of coordinated development, prediction of parameters, and judgment of coordinated development state, has been proposed to study the degree of coordinated development. To deal with uncertainties, the Monte Carlo method and the fuzzy set method were used. The overall method was demonstrated to solve a real‐world evaluation problem in Shanxi province, China. Results showed that degrees of coordinated development were (0.7, 0.8) for most of the cities in Shanxi in 2015, indicating that the state of coordinated development was intermediate. In 2020, the degree of coordinated development was expected to markedly decrease, the state of coordinated development to be minimal, and agricultural water resources utilization to lag behind socio‐economic development.
Highlights
Water resources are vital for the subsistence and development of human society.Water is collected and delivered to farmlands, factories and residential buildings, and is used to produce goods and provide services
According to the concept of regional coordinated development, the criteria of agricultural water resources system should measure the degree of water abundance, water use efficiency and agricultural response conditions, and the criteria of socio-economy development system should measure level of economic development, social development and environmental effect
This study selected the following indicators to constitute the evaluation criteria, among which, 9 evaluation indicators are for agricultural water resources and 9 evaluation indicators are for socio-economic development were put forward
Summary
Water resources are vital for the subsistence and development of human society. Water is collected and delivered to farmlands, factories and residential buildings, and is used to produce goods and provide services. Social development poses huge challenges in improving utilization ratio of water resources and promoting economic growth. It is challenging to effectively and coordinately design water resources utilization and economic development (Li et al, 2019). Study on coordinated development of water resources and socio-economy has drawn increasing attention worldwide. It has produced many theoretical and practical applications. Current studies primarily focus on investigating the causal relationship (Bao and He, 2015), developing applicable indicators systems (Yang et al, 2018), establishing evaluate model (Song et al, 2018) of economic development level and water use. Evaluation modeling is a powerful tool to quantify interactions or simulate special scenes, it has been applied in previous works in many cases
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