Abstract

The intensity and duration of hot weather and the number of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are increasing, leading to a growing need for space cooling energy demand. Together with the building stock’s low energy performance, this phenomenon may also increase households’ energy consumption. On the other hand, the low level of ownership of cooling equipment can cause low energy consumption, leading to a lack of indoor thermal comfort and several health-related problems, yet increasing the risk of energy poverty in summer. Understanding future temperature variations and the associated impacts on building cooling demand will allow mitigating future issues related to a warmer climate. In this respect, this paper analyses the effects of change in temperatures in the residential sector cooling demand in 2050 for a case study of nineteen cities across seven countries: Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain, by estimating cooling degree days and hours (CDD and CDH). CDD and CDH are calculated using both fixed and adaptive thermal comfort temperature thresholds for 2020 and 2050, understanding their strengths and weaknesses to assess the effects of warmer temperatures. Results suggest a noticeable average increase in CDD and CDH values, up to double, by using both thresholds for 2050, with a particular interest in northern countries where structural modifications in the building stock and occupants’ behavior should be anticipated. Furthermore, the use of the adaptive thermal comfort threshold shows that the projected temperature increases for 2050 might affect people’s capability to adapt their comfort band (i.e., indoor habitability) as temperatures would be higher than the maximum admissible values for people’s comfort and health.

Highlights

  • According to the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, July 2020 was the hottest month ever in the Northern Hemisphere, exceeding July 2019, where the previous highest record was set [1]

  • Jakubcionis and Carlsson [21] used cooling degree days (CDD) to assess the potential of residential cooling demand in Europe, expecting Portugal’s total cooling residential demand to increase in a range of 13- to 36-fold by 2050

  • 74.5% by 2050 [23], mainly due to the low energy-efficiency characteristics of the existing building stock, which was built before the first energy-efficiency regulation, lacking evaluation in the form of the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) [24]

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Summary

Introduction

According to the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, July 2020 was the hottest month ever in the Northern Hemisphere, exceeding July 2019, where the previous highest record was set [1]. A 2 ◦ C increase in global average temperature is expected if global emissions are not reduced by 2030 [3], leading to increased intensity and duration of hot weather and a higher frequency of extreme weather events (heatwaves and cold spells). A limited number of studies show the impacts of a warmer climate in the residential sector and the consequences for European citizens’ well-being concerning energy poverty in summer [6]. Some studies show how projected climate warming events and heatwaves are expected to increase both in frequency and intensity, leading to severe health impacts on urban dwellers [11]. D2.1a Survey on the Energy Needs and Architectural Features of the EU Building Stock (iNSPiRe Project); European Commission: Brussels, Belgium, 2014.

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