Cool‐season grass productivity estimation model evaluating the effects of global warming and climate adaptation strategies

Abstract

AbstractVarious climate adaptation strategies are being studied for the agricultural sector to address the effects of climate change. Global warming is predicted to have a significant influence on cool‐season grass production in Japan in terms of decreasing grass dry matter yield. The authors have studied adaptation strategies to maintain grass dry matter yield using orchardgrass, a cool‐season grass. However, it may be difficult to adapt to future climate conditions using management methods such as fertilizer application or changing grassland renovation cycles using only one grass species. In this study, a model was constructed formulating the relationship between temperature and yields of the main cool‐season grasses in Japan, and the effects of global warming on grass productivity were predicted. Two models were constructed, and the optimal one was selected using Akaike's information criterion. The selected model was then validated using correlations with observation data. We also compared areas suitable for cultivation at current and higher temperatures, which were produced as maps using the selected model. Bahiagrass, which is a warm‐season grass, was suitable for cultivation in coastal areas in southern Kanto under increased temperature condition. It may be useful, therefore, to convert to heat‐resistant grasses, such as orchardgrass or tall fescue, as temperatures rise.