Convolutional Long-Short Term Memory Network for convective weather prediction based on 3D Doppler radar data

Abstract

Convectional weather is one of the weather which often occurs during the warm season, the scope of this kind of weather is normally small, short duration, etc, so it is difficult to predicted, the effects of convectional weather are very large, from the national economy to military activities will be threatened by it, so how to achieve more accurate of convection weather forecast will be of great significance. Doppler radar is one of the main tools for monitoring and early warning severe convective weather. It can provide important strong convective information for prediction. through its observed real-time echo intensity (reflectivity factor Z), radial velocity (V) and velocity spectrum width (W). Echo intensity is an important basis for judging whether severe, convective weather occurs, and radial velocity can identify wind damage and is also an important basis for judging the occurrence of severe convective weather. From the radial velocity, we can see the convergence, divergence and rotation characteristics of airflow, which are closely related to the occurrence and development of severe convective weather. Therefore, Doppler radar data plays a very important role in the detection and prediction of severe weather. At present, there are still problems about how to effectively extract these information from Doppler radar data.This paper proposes a method of near prediction based on deep learning. The neural network is used to automatically learn data features for prediction. Convolution neural network is combined with long-short-time memory network. Firstly, a three-dimensional convolution is proposed to extract the spatial features of three-dimensional original data, and then the long-short-time memory network is used to extract the features of data in time dimension, thus improving the prediction accuracy. Deep learning method avoids the process of manually extracting data features, and uses historical 3D Doppler radar image data to predict convective weather forecasting system, and evaluates its experimental results.