Convertibilité et spécialisation internationale dans les économies est-européennes en transition

Abstract

Convertibility and international specialization in East European economies in transition. In the Central and East European economies in transition, internal convertibility for routine transactions, and the restructuring of trade, are mutually linked. The return to convertibility affords the opportunity to decide which forms of production are profitable, on the basis of world prices, and points the way for the future specialization of East European economies. The choice of a speedy convertibility and the refusal to create an East European payments union have speeded up the geographical restructuring of trade. In the short term, the specialization which the countries of central and eastern Europe inherited from the past conditions the choice of exchange rate level after the reintroduction of convertibility. Basing itself upon the example of the German monetary union, on the present structure of East European exports, on the prospects for convergence in respect of the States of the European Union, and on the clash between stabilization and restructuring, the article supports an undervaluation of the real rates of exchange at the beginning of the transitional period. In the longer term, as reforms are initiated and a new specialization develops, it would on the other hand be desirable for the actual exchange rate to appreciate, and to approach a level corresponding to the parity of purchasing power, thus allowing for some improvement in the living standards of the citizens of Eastern Europe.