Conversion: Global, National and Local Effects. A Case Study of Norway

Abstract

Gleditsch, N. P., Bjerkholt, O. & Cappelen, Å. Conversion: Global, National and Local Effects. A Case Study of Norway. Cooperation and Conflict, XVIII, 1983, 179-195. A number of UN studies have linked the two objectives of disarmament and devel opment. A major recent UN research program, directed by a UN Group of Govern mental Experts, examined how resources may be diverted from the arms race to increased development transfers to the Third World. This article is a product of one of the projects commissioned by the UN group. It is an analysis of aggregate national economic effects of conversion in Norway for three disarmament scenarios and five policy alternatives for increased transfers to developing countries. The adjustment problems are found to be relatively minor, and it is shown how a simple program of domestic countermeasures can compensate for any loss of employment or reduction in the national product. The consequences for Norway of global conversion are briefly examined, using the World Model of Leontief et al. Assuming that the global conversion process can be achieved without a loss in employment in the industrialized countries, the net effect for Norway of global conversion is found to be positive. Some preliminary data are given on local effects of conversion in Norway. These effects are potentially more serious, with military employment in some municipalities probably running as high as 20%. Such local effects might become obstacles to a smooth conversion, but this will also depend upon the overall employment situation.