Conversion and fusion method of multi-source and different populations maintainability prior data

Abstract

Maintainability is an important universal quality characteristic that reflects the convenience, speed and economy of weapon and equipment maintenance. Making full use of multi-source data to accurately verify the degree to which the developed equipment meets the maintainability requirements is an important basis for equipment identification and acceptance. To solve the low reliability of equipment maintainability verification results caused by inaccurate comprehensive prior distribution obtained by fusing multi-source and different populations' prior data, a method of data conversion and fusion is proposed. A data conversion model based on the mean value ratio of failure mode maintenance data is constructed. The conversion factor is defined according to objective data to convert the different populations' prior data to the same populations. Next, a comparison of the prior distribution fitting performance of Bayes bootstrap, bootstrap, and two improved sample-resampling methods to are used obtain the closest fitting distribution to the true distribution. By constructing a multi-source data fusion model based on improved KL divergence, a symmetrical KL divergence is constructed to describe the similarity between each prior distribution and the field distribution for the weighted fusion of multi-source prior distribution in addition to determining and testing the normal comprehensive prior distribution. The results show that the conversion and fusion method effectively converts the multi-source and different populations’ maintainability prior data and obtains an accurate, comprehensive prior distribution by fusion, laying the foundation for applying the Bayes test method to verify the quantitative index of equipment maintainability.