Convergence or divergence? Understanding the global development trend of low-carbon technologies

Abstract

The low-carbon technological innovation is playing a vital role in climate change mitigation. This paper aims to investigate the development trend of low-carbon technologies in the world. Using the patent data, we estimate low-carbon technology levels of 72 economies during the period of 1990–2012 and 19 OECD economies during the period of 1960–2012. Then, we explore the convergence patterns of low-carbon technologies among different regions based on a nonlinear time-varying factor model. The main findings are as follows. We do not find evidence of convergence for the 72 economies during the period of 1990–2012. But the convergence hypothesis for the 19 OECD economies during the period of 1960–2012 can not be rejected. Through the clustering method proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007), some convergence clubs are also identified. Our findings stress the importance of worldwide low-carbon technology cooperation: accelerating technology diffusion across regions and promoting projects of technology transfer to regions with low technology levels.