CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE OF BASIC MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE DISTRICTS OF PODKARPACKIE PROVINCE

Abstract

The paper presents the results of statistical analyses of σ and β real convergence processes of selected macroeconomic variables at the level of districts in Podkarpackie Province. The study comprises the data on unemployment rates, real gross wages, business investments per capita and gross industrial production sold per capita in the period 20022011 obtained from the Bank of Local Data in Central Statistical Office. Moreover, the taxonomic indicator of development for Podkarpackie Province was calculated and also subjected to statistical analysis. The main purpose of the study is to verify the hypothesis on the existence of the convergence of the analysed variables and the taxonomic indicator of development, calculated at the level of the districts in Podkarpacie. Σ-convergence analysis was based on the indicators of the spatial variation of the above mentioned variables, i.e.: maximum, minimum, the ratio of maximum/minimum, the coefficients of variation based on the quartile deviation (VQ), the standard deviation (VS) and the average deviation (Vd). Owing to the values of the calculated coefficients of variation there was observed spatial heterogeneity of the analysed variables and the taxonomic indicator of development, whereas their changes over time allowed the identification of the phenomenon of σconvergence or σ-divergence. The analysis of β real convergence consisted in the estimation of the parameters of the equation of ‘pure convergence’ of Barro’s type. Furthermore, in order to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of the analysed variables, the real convergence equations were extended by introducing individual fixed effects. The equations proposed in the article were estimated using a panel method by means of the instrumental variables method that is the most appropriate one for this type of equations, namely generalized method of moments.