Abstract

In this paper, the triangular relationship between money, price, and foreign exchange are studied. It is concluded that regulating the exchange rate by volume of liquidity in a period of less than a year is not possible, but in annual and biannual analyses, we can regulate the exchange rate through controlling the liquidity. In other words, in the long run, the exchange rate is affected by liquidity and price level, but in the short run, the price level has only temporary effects on the exchange rate. The results of the study show that:
 
 Liquidity affects the exchange rate in the long run
 Prices affect the liquidity in the long run
 In the long run, liquidity and exchange rate affect prices
 
 Our results show that injection of foreign exchange into the parallel exchange market with different lags has little effects with different directions on the exchange rate. The same result is true for the relationship between liquidity and dollar rate. In other words, in spite of the long run relationship between exchange rate and liquidity, we cannot justify this relationship in the short run. The same is true with the balance of payments position and exchange rate in the short run.
 By simulating the relationship between injecting (selling) foreign exchange in the parallel exchange market, liquidity and the cumulative balance of payments all with exchange rate, we can conclude that in the short run, regulating exchange rate by instruments such as selling exchange in the parallel market or controlling the liquidity is not possible, but in the long run, conducting foreign exchange sale policy and controlling the liquidity and the balance of payments position can control the exchange market.

Highlights

  • Mixed monetary-exchange policy making is one of the important problems in macro-economic planning

  • Our goal was to find out the effects of changes in Money on the foreign exchange rate in the short run and long run

  • We were looking to find out if we can change foreign exchange rate by changing the liquidity? On the other hand, what is the effect of the price, which has an important catalyst role in this interaction? we looked for the triangular relationship between money, prices, and foreign exchange rate, through which we can reach foreign exchange rate control policies

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Summary

Introduction

Mixed monetary-exchange policy making is one of the important problems in macro-economic planning. Regarding the special position of our country from a dependency point of view on oil income and oil shocks and various international problems, it seems that if This goal was set in a range which could cover the effects of foreign fluctuations, it would increase the credibility of targeting for controlling the inflation. In this regard, we can mention the deep affectability of monetary policy from fiscal policy and considering the experience of other countries for controlling inflation; this concept will be very important. All these instruments could not be used thoroughly or partially because of their own reasons

Exchange rate targeting policy
Time series analysis
Causality between the main variables
Theoretical dynamic causality among variables
10. Selling foreign exchange
11. Simulation
Findings
12. Conclusion
Full Text
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