Abstract
In the practical cultivation of cultures, including grapes, prediction is an inherent attribute, since, under weather actions, it is possible to immediately take measures before one or another degree of the vegetation of culture is affected. In order to develop mathematical software of an information system for determining the probability of reduction in the yield of grapes, we observed the annual variation in temperatures. Moreover, to manage this process, its comparison was conducted with the development of grapevine by the phases of its development for 16 years. By employing the method of binary logistic regression, we revealed three most significant indicators (radiation background, the sum of efficient temperatures during flowering, annual total precipitation in the previous year), which were included into the mathematical model developed. The results obtained make it possible to estimate the risk of reduction in the harvest of grapes, which is grown under conditions of the Northeastern forest-steppe region of Ukraine (Kharkiv region). The developed model as a whole and its separate coefficients are statistically significant. It is also established that all the predictors, in accordance with the chi-squared test, impact the prediction of reduction in the yield of grape. The obtained results might be used when making a decision about the need of change in the agrotechnical methods for the purpose of improving productivity by changing the course of specific phases in the vegetation of grape.
Highlights
One of the problems in viticulture is obtaining a sufficient harvest for providing the population
The purpose of present study is to develop a mathematical software for the information system of determining the probability of reduction in the yield of grapes according to weather data
We defined three most significant indicators: radiation background, the sum of active temperatures during flowering, annual total volume of precipitation in the previous year. They make it possible to estimate the risk of reduction in the harvest of grapes, which is grown under conditions of the Northeastern forest-steppe region of Ukraine
Summary
One of the problems in viticulture is obtaining a sufficient harvest for providing the population. The timing of germination, ripening and flowering of plants are very important for the estimation of harvest of food plants These measures are not possible without taking into account the requirements and determinining the factor, which more accurately expresses the harvest of biomass. Practical work on the cultivation of grapes under conditions of the Northeastern forest-steppe area of Ukraine is accompanied by instrument observations over the climatic parameters, among which considerable attention is paid to the study of thermal regime. Important in this case is the accumulation of experience in both the cultivation and comparisons of results of instrument observations. Control over the harvest of grapes that are grown under climatically unstable conditions using mathematical modeling, is a relevant task
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