Abstract
Production planning and control can be used as a reference or guideline in conducting production activities. With the existence of good production planning and control, the company can minimize or anticipate things that are detrimental to the company, so that optimal profits can be obtained by the company. The problem that occurs is PT. Sinar Metrindo Perkasa has not used the right forecasting method to predict the sales of electrical panels that continue to fluctuate. Often there is a lack of production in the company does not know the planning of raw materials for further production. Forecasting results can be used to compile production activities and operations of the company, such as in terms of raw material inventories, namely looking for safety stock or making a standard bill of material that is useful to know for further planning. Forecasting with 3 methods for evaluating forecasting using the sum of absolute errors. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measures the accuracy of predictions by averaging estimated errors. MAD weight moving average is 152662.3 data, single exponential smoothing 112749.3 data and simple linear regression 83282.52 data. Then on the BKA and BKB the results obtained by the BKA in October were equal to 32,837 and the BKB value of -32,837, the average of the results of the moving range of 123,449. The graphic image on the x-axis line is the number of periods or months and the y-axis value of the number of forecasting lines BKA has uniform data because the value of the data distribution of material purchases is close to the BKA means that the percentage value of material purchases during the year is problematic and vice versa with BKB uniform data because the value of the data spread is close to the average. For this forecasting, further research can be done by finding a bill of material for each order and also looking for control of the production with safety stock.
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