Abstract
Visceral leishmaniasis is an emerging and neglected disease that is currently expanding to urban areas. The incidence of human disease is related to canine infection. Araçatuba and Birigui are municipalities (counties) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with 8-10% seroprevalence of canine infection and that employ control strategies targeting the canine reservoir, based on serological survey and culling of seropositive dogs. Using data from these control programs to parameterize mathematical models, this study assessed the efficacy of these activities. We estimated that current control is capable of reducing the incidence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) by approximately 20%. Assuming continuous control and three times the current serological survey activities in Araçatuba and Birigui, culling dogs with a positive CVL diagnosis would be effective for the control of canine infection. Although theoretically possible, in practice the control of CVL with the currently recommended strategies is insufficient, since it would require overcoming the difficulties in these activities, such as lack of material, human, and financial resources, besides associated ethical and legal issues.
Highlights
Impact of 4% deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars on the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis
Visceral leishmaniasis is an emerging and neglected disease that is currently expanding to urban areas
We estimated that current control is capable of reducing the incidence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) by approximately 20%
Summary
Araçatuba e Birigui são municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, com soroprevalência da infecção canina de 8 a 10%, que empregam estratégias de controle voltadas ao reservatório canino baseado em inquérito sorológico e eutanásia dos cães soropositivos. Considerando-se a importância histórica e epidemiológica de Araçatuba e Birigui para a disseminação da LV no Estado de São Paulo, o objetivo deste estudo foi parametrizar modelos matemáticos para representar os cenários epidemiológicos desses municípios e estimar o efeito do esforço de eutanásia de cães soropositivos como estratégia de controle da LVC. Estudos sugerem que uma parcela dos cães assintomáticos pode evoluir sinais clínicos da doença mais tardiamente: este processo foi incorporado ao modelo por meio da taxa τas de saída do compartimento de assintomático para sintomático [27,28]. Tabela 1 Parâmetros e símbolos utilizados nos modelos matemáticos de dinâmica de leishmaniose visceral canina
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