Contribution of nearly-zero energy buildings standards enforcement to achieve carbon neutral in urban area by 2060

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Nearly-zero energy buildings (NZEB) would effectively improve building energy efficiency and promote building electrification. By using a carbon emission model integrated into a bottom-up mid-to-long term energy consumption model, this study analyzes the contribution of NZEB standards to carbon emission targets in the urban area of China by 2060. Three scenarios are set, namely BAU, steady development (S1), and high-speed development (S2). For BAU, the total carbon emissions will reach a peak of 1.94 Gt CO2 by 2040. In S1 scenario, total building carbon emissions will reach the peak of 1.72 Gt CO2 by 2030. In S2 scenario, the carbon emissions will reach a peak by 2025 with 1.64 Gt CO2. Under S1 scenario, which features consistency with NZEB market development and periodic improvement of building energy-efficiency standards, the carbon emission peak in 2030 will be accomplished. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the upgrading of building energy standards to NZEB will contribute 50.1%, while zero-carbon electricity contribution is 49.9%. It is concluded that 2025, 2030, and 2035 could be set as mandatory enforcement years for ultra-low energy buildings, NZEB and zero energy building (ZEB), respectively.