Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment

Abstract

The time evolution of the near-Earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between Earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.