Contribution of Deforestation to Severe Flooding in Southeast Parts of the Caspian Sea: A Case Study with NDVI Analysis

Abstract

Iran has been faced with increase in flooding cases during the past 60 years. The human activities have been considered as a devastating factor in the environmental change causing the occurrence of severe flooding cases during past decades. On August 11, 2001, a relatively severe rainfall in the south east of Caspian Sea led to the occurrence of a severe deadly flooding in Golestan province and some parts in northern Khorasan province have been unprecedented in Iran over the past century. The destructive extent of flooding in the urban and rural areas reached about 5,000 km2. Here, the synoptic surface and upper levels of the weather charts have been analyzed along with the monitoring of half hourly METEOSAT7 images to show the convective clouds development over the area of the study. The total precipitation in this area during the flooding period was reported between 2.5 and 153 mm with the maximum estimation over the center of the storm around less than 250[Formula: see text]mm. Using satellite imagery in 1979 and 2000, vegetation changes and environmental changes have been investigated and shown extensive decline in vegetation. The image processing and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculation of the color composite 433 of LANDSAT5 and the color composite 211 of TERRA (MODIS sensor) images between 1998 and 2001 have been revealed significant deforestation around 248,131,534.3[Formula: see text][Formula: see text] over the study, particularly over the rivers’ neighborhood. Also, by assumption of the same precipitation for 1998 and 2001, the discharge rate in flood case of 2001 has been intensified 1.3 times (at 13 percent) larger than that of 1998. This shows the direct impact of the deforestation and land use changes over the study area during 1998–2001.