Abstract

 
 
 Under the current widespread economic integration of new international trade theory, the world’s two most populous countries, China and India, have achieved high growth, reducing poverty, increasing income and living standards and, as a result, provided good sources of much needed income-generating tourism to international destinations in recent years. The trend in rising tourism including education from China and India to Australia is exponential, and particularly important where the country’s geographical, cultural and educational quality attributes are internationally key attractions. Appropriate studies of this trend and economic outcomes, with robust and reliable empirical findings for credible analysis have been inadequate to date. The project addresses this gap by proposing to investigate the economic contributions of China and India’s tourism to Australia, and their determination for strategic international policy analysis. Significantly, this is done from an economic integration framework, which is also the expenditure (as opposed to production or income) perspective of the United Nations System of National Accounts 1993/2008. A multi-simultaneous equation model of endogenous Australian growth and Chinese and Indian tourism determination is developed. The model novelly incorporates gravity theory and classical consumer demand contributors, Ironmonger-Lancaster commodity attributes and Johansen policy impact add-and sub-factors explicitly in the economic integration framework, and is estimated by system methods with official economic and tourism 1992-2016 data. The findings will provide appropriate and much needed evidence-based inputs on the major economic integration contributors to Australia’s growth, Chinese and Indian tourism causality to key stake-holders such as tourism policy-makers, analysts and operators for international strategic policy analysis and practical implementation.
 
 
Highlights
As two major beneficiaries of global openness or known as economic integration (WTO, 2019) and policy reforms, China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, have achieved much in raising their living standards, reducing poverty and increasing income in the last few decades
The paper addresses three important contemporary issues, namely, China’s and India’s tourism to Australia determination, the comparative contribution of Chinese and Indian tourism to Australia’s economic growth, and the lack of rigorous studies taking into account the structure of modern economic integration theory, as applied to these three globalised trade partners
The new approach introduced in the paper, which is consistent with contemporary global economic and trade policy developments and modelling methodological advances, to studying what motivated China’s and India’s tourism to Australia, their causal differences and their comparative contribution to the Australian economy during the volatile period 1992-2016, has provided a number of interesting results
Summary
As two major beneficiaries of global openness or known as economic integration (WTO, 2019) and policy reforms, China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, have achieved much in raising their living standards, reducing poverty and increasing income in the last few decades. To provide substantive answers to our research questions, we propose to develop a model of three simultaneous equations in implicit form for Australia’s endogenous growth, China’s and India’s tourism determination in the framework of deep economic integration theory (see Tran and Limskul, 2013; Tran et al, 2018) as follows: Yt = F1 (a, Ot, FDIt, SEt, TCt, TIt, It, Wt, St), t=1,...,N
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