Contribution of atmospheric technogenic emissions to the incidence of lung cancer in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Introduction. An assessment of the contribution of manmade emissions into the atmosphere to the incidence of lung cancer in the Russian Federation is made. For an assessment data from official state statistics on emissions into the atmosphere of the Russian Federation and indicators of the incidence rate of lung cancer by regions of the Russian Federation were used.
 Materials and methods. Linear regression analysis was used as a statistical method of research. The optimality of the regression model by the number of predictors was determined by the Akaike information criterion.
 Results. Limits obtained with 90% confidence are the contributions of complex atmospheric technogenic emission to the incidence of lung cancer 
 of 2.2 (-0.7; 5.2)% for men and 3.7 (0.5; 6.7)% for women, that is statistically significant. The values of chemical oncological risks from emissions are respectively equal to 1.5·10–5 and 6.2·10–6 per year and don’t exceed the standards of socially acceptable chemical risk 10–4.
 Limitations. The main limitation of this study is not to take into account competing risks from other factors of atmospheric pollution, such as smoking, radon.
 Conclusion. The results of this study, due to the significant limitations of the regression model, should be considered to be preliminary and determine the directions of the main research within the framework of the actual problem under consideration.
 Keywords: emissions into the atmosphere; lung cancer; incidence; linear regression; Akaike criterion; environmental risk; socially acceptable risk; radiation equivalent of chemical risk
 Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the opinion of the Biomedical Ethics Committee or other documents, as it uses data from open official state statistics.