Abstract
A better understanding of how streamflow interacts with climate change and human activities would contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of water resources management. Specifically, quantifying the climate and human contributions has widely been used when attributing streamflow changes. However, only a few previous studies compared the results derived by different methods that are currently available, and even fewer studies have ever had a close look at the uncertainties induced by various estimations of evapotranspiration. This research first examined the streamflow changes for 12 catchments on the Loess Plateau in China during the period of 1961–2018 with Mann–Kendall test and relevant statistical measurements. Then, 8 Budyko-based climate elasticity methods, each with 13 estimations of evapotranspiration, were used to quantifying human and climate contributions to streamflow change in the study area (i.e., 104 pairs of values for human and climate contributions for one catchment). The results showed that significant declining trends could be found in 11 of the 12 catchments studied. In terms of contribution rates, human activity has been shown as the major contributor to the streamflow decrease (60–90%) compared to climate change (10–50%). By comparing the contribution results derived by possible combinations of attribution method and evapotranspiration estimation, the variability due to different Budyko-based methods being used seems to be related to geographical location and climate. Although the spatial pattern of variability due to different estimations of evapotranspiration is not obvious, it is necessary to consider the uncertainties induced when launching contribution analysis over specific regions.
Highlights
Water resources are closely related to agricultural production and human well-being.both climatic changes and human interferences can influence the availability of water resources [1]
Changes in streamflow, evapotranspiration (E0 ), and precipitation were first investigated for 12 catchments within Loess Plateau (LP) during the period of
With analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test and the Range of Variability Approach (RVA), significant declining trends were found for streamflow in most catchments: low-flow seasons for the catchments studied were characterized by a decrease in E0 ; and no significant trend was found for the change of precipitation in the study area on LP
Summary
Water resources are closely related to agricultural production and human well-being.both climatic changes and human interferences can influence the availability of water resources [1]. Climatic and anthropogenic factors sometimes come into play together, which leads to intensified impacts on natural flows and extreme conditions, such as drought [5]. In this manner, it is necessary to better understand the impacts of either internal or external factors on water resources and the underlying mechanisms to help decision makers manage water resources in a more sustainable way. It is important to investigate the influence of environmental changes (due to either climatic or anthropogenic factors) on streamflow to assess how regional water resources would respond to the changes and to generate adaptation strategies for the changes [6]. It is vital to separate impacts by different factors when analyzing the causal relationship between streamflow changes and influencing factors
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