Abstract
The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan. First of all, the result of the present study clearly revealed the changes in contributing factors for train delays caused by the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the contributing factors for train delays changed due to the decrease of passengers by the effect of the outbreak of the virus. Additionally, though large terminal stations were considered to be a major contributing factor in causing and increasing train delays in the past, this was not the case after the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, under such conditions, it is more effective to make improvements in small to medium stations and tracks rather than terminal stations. Furthermore, as the decrease in passengers also decreased train delays in commuter lines going to the suburbs due to the spread of COVID-19, the contributing factor for such lines is the excessive number of passengers. Therefore, as for countermeasures for train delays after the effects of COVID-19, it is necessary to disperse passengers in order to avoid passengers concentrating in the same time zones and train lines.
Highlights
The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan
In the standard multiple regression analysis for June 2018, the regression coefficient for the length of lines with connecting operation was exceptionally high, while the regression coefficient for the number of connecting operation stations was largely negative. This is because the train delay time in commuter lines connecting to large terminal stations that go out towards the suburbs is longer than that of the central lines that connect with many stations
Before the spread of COVID-19, delay times were longer in commuter lines going towards the suburbs and lines that run through services with many other train lines
Summary
Regarding many train lines in the metropolitan area in Japan, the commuting. The frequency and length of train delays vary from one train line to another. Through services between train lines have been increasing in recent years and a further increase is expected. It is not uncommon for an issue that occurred in one location to affect the entire metropolitan area. In order to improve the convenience of railway networks within the metropolitan area, the contributing factors for train delays must be analyzed and improved based on the characteristics of each train line
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