Contrastive Influence of ENSO and PNA on Variability and Predictability of North American Winter Precipitation

Abstract

Abstract In this work, the roles of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the variability and predictability of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and precipitation in North America in winter are examined. It is noted that statistically about 29% of the variance of PNA is linearly linked to ENSO, while the remaining 71% of the variance of PNA might be explained by other processes, including atmospheric internal dynamics and sea surface temperature variations in the North Pacific. The ENSO impact is mainly meridional from the tropics to the mid–high latitudes, while a major fraction of the non-ENSO variability associated with PNA is confined in the zonal direction from the North Pacific to the North American continent. Such interferential connection on PNA as well as on North American climate variability may reflect a competition between local internal dynamical processes (unpredictable fraction) and remote forcing (predictable fraction). Model responses to observed sea surface temperature and model forecasts confirm that the remote forcing is mainly associated with ENSO and it is the major source of predictability of PNA and winter precipitation in North America.