Contrasting the Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Yangtze Precipitation during the Summer of 1998 and 2016

Abstract

In 1998 and 2016, boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) could reach the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (YRB), leading to extreme precipitation. Based on multiple daily data, this study reveals the differences in BSISO events and mechanisms between 1998 and 2016. In June–July of 1998 (2016), YRB precipitation was impacted by 30–60-day oscillation, i.e., BSISO1 (10–30-day oscillation, i.e., BSISO2), with two strong (three) precipitation events occurring. In 1998, when BSISO1 was in phases 1–4 (phases 5–8), the YRB experienced a wet (dry) episode. In 2016, when BSISO2 was in phases 1–2 and 7–8 (phases 3–6), the YRB experienced a wet (dry) episode. In 1998, in event 1, the active convection of the YRB first originated in the South China Sea–western Pacific (SCS–WP) and then in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). In 1998, in event 2, the active convection of the YRB originated in the SCS–WP. In 2016, in events 1 and 3, the active convection of the YRB originated from the SCS–WP. In 2016, in event 2, the active convection of the YRB originated from the tropical IO and the extratropical WP. Different SST and atmospheric circulations explain different BSISO modes that dominate in the YRB. In 1998 (2016), in summer, (no) strong easterly wind anomalies occurred in the SCS–WP, which are favorable (unfavorable) for the enhancement of BSISO1. Accompanying the suppressed BSISO1, BSISO2 was enhanced in 2016.