Contrasting patterns of land-cover change between early and late successional forests in a tropical montane cloud forest area managed under the milpa system

Abstract

Land cover dynamics (LCD) in areas affected by different management types are hard to predict. Such is the case of tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) areas in Mexico. The millenary itinerant milpa involves local cyclical deforestation and natural reforestation dynamics with long-lasting fallow periods. Conversely, induced grasslands for cattle, non-traditional maize cultivation with short fallow periods, and sedentary agriculture involve persistent deforestation rates. Also, human density changes could alter LCD. Ignoring such factors may lead to equivocal conclusions. We analyzed LCD using remote sensing analyses with LANDSAT images during two periods (1993–2005, 2005–2014) in a TMCF area in Sierra Norte, Oaxaca, affected by milpas, sedentary agriculture, and grasslands. We divided the study area into six indigenous sub-regions with different human population growth rates (HPG). We identified five land-cover types: mature forests (MF) dominated by TMCF species, early successional pine forests (PF), shrubby fallows (SH), croplands (milpas and more sedentary maize croplands together), and grasslands. We show that: (a) The 1993–2005 period was more variable than the 2005–2014 period, 27 % vs. 21 % of the total area displayed transitions into another class. (b) MF area dominated (277,128 ha), increased from 1993 (64.0 %) to 2014 (67.6 %), and was not statistically associated with HPG. (c) PFs decreased from 27 % in 1993 to 15 % in 2014, and their rate of change was negatively associated with HPG. (d) The total forest area (MF + PF) decreased by 9.3 %. (f) Grasslands, SHs, and croplands fluctuated between periods and sub-regions, but none exceeded 7 % of the total area. (g) Grasslands showed the greatest increase rate, mainly at the expense of forestlands. (h) The grassland and SH increments were positively associated with HPG. The heterogeneity in LCD among periods and sub-regions reveals the relevance of considering temporal and spatial scales within the same region. The persistence of MF and the PF decrease can be ascribed to the disruption of the successional dynamics related to the decline of the traditional milpa enforced by federal and state policies at the beginning of the 21st century, the sedentarization of agriculture, local conservation areas, increases of induced pastures, and human emigration. Although Sierra Norte is an essential reservoir of TMCFs, the decline of the total forest area, particularly secondary forests, is of concern given their roles in resilience and as carbon, culture, and biodiversity reservoirs. Humid mid-elevation areas of Sierra Norte are one of the few examples of mature forest persistence and secondary forest decline.