Contrasted spatio-temporal changes in the demersal fish assemblages and the dominance of the environment vs fishing pressure, in the Bay of Biscay and Celtic Sea

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Climate change and resource exploitation represent strong selection pressure affecting the spatio-temporal dynamics of marine assemblages that ensure food provision for humans. However, such dynamics remain poorly documented, and their drivers unclear. Here, we investigate changes in fish assemblages of two key European fishing areas, the Bay of Biscay (BoB) and the Celtic Sea (CS), during the last two decades. We quantify the relative contribution of change in energy (i.e. temperature and trophic resources), habitat (depth, substrate, oxygen) and fishing pressure to explaining observed spatial and temporal variations in fish diversity. We used long-term scientific surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal changes in species richness (SR), abundance and composition of demersal fish (Actinopterygii) assemblages at different spatial scales combined with a range of regression models and variance partitioning. Diversity patterns showed greater variability in space than in time: SR weakly changed over time, while compositional dissimilarity showed local patterns of taxonomic homogenization in the CS and differentiation in the southern BoB, where local assemblages were becoming more similar and dissimilar over time, respectively. Energy funnelled through small pelagic species as a potential trophic link affecting the dynamics of demersal assemblages was the most important driver, while habitat and fishing pressure had limited importance. Our study revealed contrasted dynamics of demersal fish assemblages at a regional scale that were best explained by the dynamics of small pelagic species. Direct effects of environmental forcing and fishing pressure were limited in both regions which have a long history of fishing and still remain relatively buffered from global warming effects. This research paved the way to combine methods inspired by biogeography with scientific monitoring surveys to detect spatio-temporal dynamics of fish assemblages and their drivers in marine ecosystems under multiple pressures.