Contradictions between the budget and monetary policies in the modern Russia as the main cause of crises

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the empirical study of the causes of periodical crises in the Russian economy. It is the continuation of the author’s article On the Effect of the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth Dynamics. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation’s data Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy over a period 2000-2015 were used for calculations and diagrams. Based upon the Russian macroeconomic statistical data for the period of 1995-2015, the main factors are defined (real effective rate of rouble, oil price, capital account of payment balance, growth rate of controlled prices) that allow to build a crisis development model. The idea of constant contradictions between the money-and-credit and budget policies of the government is suggested as the main cause of crises of 1998, 2008 and 2014. This discrepancy is exemplified by each stage of the Russian economic development (1995-1999, 2000-2008, 2009-2014). A self-sustained crisis model and methods for resolving this issue are suggested.