Continuum of global to local dispersal frameworks highlights the increasing threat of pine wilt disease in China

Abstract

The global introduction of human-mediated trade and local dispersal through transport or natural pathways are major processes and contributors to biological invasion. To effectively prevent and manage biological invasion, global introduction pathways and local dispersal processes of biological invasions need to be considered as a continuum of global to local dispersal (CGLD). However, there has been no unified CGLD framework developed that simultaneously considers global introduction pathway dynamics and multiple local dispersal processes with human-mediated and natural pathways to guide the development of effective management priority strategies for pine wilt disease. In this study, we constructed a CGLD framework to evaluate the global introduction and local dispersal risks of pine wilt disease. This is an invasive forest pathogen caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which causes severe harm to forestry ecosystems worldwide. The global introduction network dynamics has indicated that the introduction pressure of PWN continually increased during 2003–2016. The highest-risk source country and entry port were the United States and Jiangsu ports, respectively. The local dispersal modes of PWN were mainly presented a random structure with lots of “in-filling” dispersal events during 2010–2021. The PWN populations in China have gradually dispersed to non-analogous climatic regions compared to those in the native and other invasive ranges. The dispersal risk areas of PWN primarily cover southwestern, eastern, central, and northeastern China. Such integration can facilitate more accurate prediction of global introduction and local dispersal pathway risk of biological invasion and provide vital guidance for designing management priority strategies to prevent invasion.