Continuous solar wind forcing knowledge: Providing continuous conditions at Mars with the WSA‐ENLIL + Cone model

Abstract

AbstractKnowledge of solar wind conditions at Mars is often necessary to study the planet's magnetospheric and ionospheric dynamics. With no continuous upstream solar wind monitor at Mars, studies have used a variety of methods to measure or predict Martian solar wind conditions. In situ measurements, when available, are preferred, but can often be limited in continuity or scope, and so studies have also utilized solar wind proxies, spacecraft flybys, and Earth‐Mars alignment to provide solar wind context. Despite the importance of solar wind knowledge and the range of methods used to provide it, the use of solar wind models remains relatively unutilized. This study uses the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA)‐ENLIL + Cone solar wind model to calculate solar wind parameters at Mars' orbital location to provide a new approach to determining solar wind conditions at Mars. Comparisons of the model results with observations by the MAVEN spacecraft indicate that the WSA‐ENLIL + Cone model can forecast solar wind conditions at Mars as accurately as it has predicted them historically at the Earth, although at Mars the model systematically mispredicts solar wind speed and density, likely a result of magnetogram calibration. Particular focus is placed on modeling the early March 2015 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that interacted with Mars. Despite the complexity of the ICMEs, the model accurately predicted the speed and arrival time of the ICME‐driven interplanetary shock, although it underpredicted other solar wind parameters. These results suggest that solar wind models can be used to provide the necessary general context of the heliospheric conditions to planetary studies.