Continuous blood glucose level prediction of Type 1 Diabetes based on Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Recent technological advancements in diabetes technologies, such as Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) systems, provide reliable sources to blood glucose data. Following its development, a new challenging area in the field of artificial intelligence has been opened and an accurate prediction method of blood glucose levels has been targeted by scientific researchers. This article proposes a new method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for blood glucose level prediction of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) using only CGM data as inputs. To show the efficiency of our method and to validate our ANN, real CGM data of 13 patients were investigated. The accuracy of the strategy is discussed based on some statistical criteria such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The obtained averages of RMSE are 6.43 mg/dL, 7.45 mg/dL, 8.13 mg/dL and 9.03 mg/dL for Prediction Horizon (PH) respectively 15 min, 30 min, 45 min and 60 min and the average of MAPE was 3.87% for PH = 15 min, knowing that the smaller is the RMSE and MAPE, the more accurate is the prediction. Experimental results show that the proposed ANN is accurate, adaptive, and very encouraging for a clinical implementation. Furthermore, while other studies have only focused on the prediction accuracy of blood glucose, this work aims to improve the quality of life of T1D patients by using only CGM data as inputs and by limiting human intervention.