Continuous and automatic mortality risk prediction using vital signs in the intensive care unit: a hybrid neural network approach

Abstract

Mortality risk prediction can greatly improve the utilization of resources in intensive care units (ICUs). Existing schemes in ICUs today require laborious manual input of many complex parameters. In this work, we present a scheme that uses variations in vital signs over a 24-h period to make mortality risk assessments for 3-day, 7-day, and 14-day windows. We develop a hybrid neural network model that combines convolutional (CNN) layers with bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) to predict mortality from statistics describing the variation of heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, blood oxygen levels, and temperature. Our scheme performs strongly compared to state-of-the-art schemes in the literature for mortality prediction, with our highest-performing model achieving an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.884. We conclude that the use of a hybrid CNN-BiLSTM network is highly effective in determining mortality risk for the 3, 7, and 14 day windows from vital signs. As vital signs are routinely recorded, in many cases automatically, our scheme could be implemented such that highly accurate mortality risk could be predicted continuously and automatically, reducing the burden on healthcare providers and improving patient outcomes.