Continuity and Change in the Presidential Money Primary

Abstract

From 1980 to 2000 the candidate that raised the most campaign funds before the start of the primary season tended to win the party nomination. Adkins and Dowdle (2002) found that the positive effect of candidate performance (as measured by national poll results, change in candidate viability, and length of candidacy) and campaign organization (as measured by the amount of money the candidate’s campaign spent on fundraising, size of the candidate’s electoral constituency, and whether the candidate self-financed his campaign) explained much of the variation in fundraising in the months before the Iowa caucuses that make up the money primary. In this research two OLS regression models were generated to examine whether developments such as frontloading and campaign finance reforms, which occurred prior to the 2004 nomination cycle, demonstrated change or continuity in presidential money primary. Overall, the results suggest a great degree of similarity, even though candidates may now be running harder to raise more money in a shorter period of time.