Abstract
In this study, we augment the traditional travel cost approach with contingent behavior data for coastal recreation. The objective is to analyze the welfare implications of future changes in the conditions of the Baltic Sea due to climate change and eutrophication. Adding to the literature, we assess the symmetricity of welfare effects caused by improvements and deteriorations in environmental conditions for a set of quality attributes. Responses are derived from identical online surveys in Finland, Germany and Latvia. We estimate recreational benefits using linear and non-linear negative binomial random-effects models. The calculated annual consumer surpluses are considerably influenced by the magnitude of the environmental changes in the three countries. We also observe asymmetries in the effects of environmental improvements and deteriorations on the expected number of visits. In particular, the results indicate that deteriorations lead to larger or more significant impacts than improvements in the case of blue-green algal blooms and algae onshore for Finland, water clarity for Germany, and water clarity and blue-green algal blooms for Latvia. For the remaining attributes, the effects are ambiguous.
Highlights
The Baltic Sea provides many ecosystem services for the citizens of the riparian countries
We focus on the question of how potential future changes in environmental conditions affect the recreational benefits provided by the Baltic Sea
This paper presents results of a contingent behavior (CB) study on the value of coastal and marine recreation for three Baltic Sea riparian countries, i.e., Finland, Germany, and Latvia, under changing environmental conditions
Summary
The Baltic Sea provides many ecosystem services for the citizens of the riparian countries. In the choice experiment literature, a few studies have incorporated individual-specific SQs and asymmetric modeling (Ahtiainen et al 2015; Glenk 2011; Masiero and Hensher 2010; Lanz et al 2010; Hess et al 2008), finding consistent evidence of asymmetric preferences We build on this literature and assess the relative importance of five environmental attributes (water clarity, blue-green algal blooms, algae onshore, number of bird, plant, and fish species, and facilities at the site) taking asymmetric effects of improvements and deteriorations of the individual attributes into account. We extend this literature by estimating recreational benefits provided by the Baltic Sea based on the CB method This allows us to evaluate changes in environmental conditions beyond the observed state in a revealed preference setting.
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