Contingency Probability Estimation for Risk-Based Planning Studies Using NERC's Outage Data and Standard TPL-001-4

Abstract

This paper develops a method for computing probabilities of contingencies P1-P7 specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Standard TPL-001-4. These probabilities are useful for performing industry-based probabilistic planning power flow studies. Markov models are provided that characterize TPL contingency types P1-P7, and data processing necessary to estimate model parameters is described based on NERC data collection systems GADS, GADS-Wind, TADS, and MIDAS. A software system called Contingency Probability Estimation Tool (CPET) is described that encapsulates these models, processes, and data.