Abstract
This paper develops a method for computing probabilities of contingencies P1-P7 specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Standard TPL-001-4. These probabilities are useful for performing industry-based probabilistic planning power flow studies. Markov models are provided that characterize TPL contingency types P1-P7, and data processing necessary to estimate model parameters is described based on NERC data collection systems GADS, GADS-Wind, TADS, and MIDAS. A software system called Contingency Probability Estimation Tool (CPET) is described that encapsulates these models, processes, and data.
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