Contingency in Economic Development: Theory versus Narrative in the Case of Botswana

Abstract

The paper has an empirical and methodological purpose. It argues that on methodological grounds historical narratives have superior powers of explanation than the theory-driven analyses encountered in mainstream economics. This is partly because narratives employ actual behavior, collective action processes and conditions instead of hypothetical ones and are able to explain contingent events that often dominate changes of complex social phenomena such as economic development. The economic development of Botswana is a case in point where human agency, unique collective action processes and conjunctions of circumstances play a major role that shaped political processes in a way that growth orientation became the favored policy-choice for the government. These circumstances include unfavorable geographical conditions, colonial neglect, and the survival of a unique traditional society, leadership and the discovery of diamonds at the “right” time and the “right” place. Botswana’s story of growth supports the more general contention that economic development depends on highly contingent events where an explanation is best approached by narratives.