Contingency estimation using a real options approach

Abstract

In construction projects, contingency is the budget which is made available to cope with uncertainties that would incur schedule and cost overruns. Contingency estimation requires considering project cost, schedule and technology variability. The effect of dynamic project management of the decision maker should also be taken into account. Accordingly a real options approach for estimating contingency from the owner’s point of view is presented. This approach not only explicitly recognizes the uncertainty in the life cycle of a construction project, but also incorporates a dynamic project management mechanism into contingency estimation. The contingency is valued by minimizing the expected project cost via a multi‐stage stochastic model that accounts for the variability of project cost and schedule and the exercise of dynamic project crashing. The numerical results indicate that the value of the decision maker’s dynamic project management makes up an important portion of the contingency.