Contingencies of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Simulation

Timothy Clancy,Khalid Saeed,Bland Addison,Oleg Pavlov

doi:10.3390/systems9040090

Abstract

This paper builds confidence in the terror contagion hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to predatory mass violence operates as a system. Within this system, the contingent values of key root causes create channels within which violent ideologies and terrorism emerge. We built a system dynamics simulation model capable of replicating historical reference modes and sophisticated enough to test the contingent values of these propositions. Of 16 propositions, we identified six root-cause propositions that must simultaneously exist, act in concert and explain the dynamics of their interaction which generate a terror contagion. Other propositions can strengthen or weaken an existing contagion but not eliminate it. We use an experiment to demonstrate how changing the contingent values of these propositions creates downward channels. This experiment helps reconcile the swarm vs. fishermen debate over the true root causes of violent radicalization. Within these channels, the contingent values can favor swarm or fishermen manifestations. The simulation and experimentation results enable the future development of the terror contagion hypothesis, provide a testing environment for research on violent radicalization, and provide a pathway to policy development in the combating of terrorism that arises from violent radicalization.

Highlights

In 1995 two perpetrators planned to use improvised explosives to kill their classmates at Columbine High School
In June of 2017, the vehicular ramming template method crossed from one violent ideology to another when a British ultranationalist used it in a copycat retaliation against Finsbury Mosque attendees [5]
Our experiments identify which propositions of the terror contagion hypothesis represent the root cause of violent radicalization and under what range of contingencies these propositions operate

Summary

Introduction

In 1995 two perpetrators planned to use improvised explosives to kill their classmates at Columbine High School. When the explosives failed to detonate, the perpetrators improvised a mass-shooting attack which killed 13 people and wounded 24. 6. Since 1995, at least 30 perpetrators, some born after Columbine, have seen themselves in that mediaconstructed representation, and have replicated the improvised mass-shooting method, rather than the intended explosives method, to attack their own schools [2], pp. Columbine defined and transmitted a violent ideology and a template method for mass-violence terrorism. The seed event for so-called incels, the Isla Vista attacks of 2014, broadcast a violent ideology of misogyny and a belief in ‘involuntary celibacy’ [4], combined with a template of mass violence through vehicular ramming and mass shooting. In August 2017, a US right-wing extremist used vehicular ramming against Charlottesville protesters in a heavily publicized incident, completing the transition of a method of attack that originated in one violent ideology to another, where it has continued to be used [6]

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion