Contextualizing Narratives of Economic Growth and Navigating Problematic Data: Economic Trends in Ethiopia (1999–2017)

Logan Cochrane,Yeshtila W Bekele

doi:10.3390/economies6040064

Logan Cochrane, Yeshtila W Bekele

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/economies6040064

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Abstract

There are common narratives about economic growth in Ethiopia. We analyze four common narratives, namely, that (1) the economy is transforming from agriculture to industry, (2) that national economic growth has been rapid and sustained, (3) that Ethiopia’s economy is largely agricultural, and (4) that there is a looming debt crisis, largely due to lending from China. In many instances, the justification for these narratives is based upon single years or specific data points. We examine these narratives over the long term, to assess if they are supported by available macroeconomic data. In doing so, we encountered significant issues with data quality and consistency. This article presents the available datasets from 1999 to 2017 and concludes that the commonly made claims about the Ethiopian economy are sometimes accurate, sometimes incomplete, and other times inaccurate. We call for greater attention to primary data, and primary datasets, as opposed to relying upon secondary summaries, single years, or specific data points to make generalized claims.

Highlights

There are dominant narratives about the Ethiopian economy that are often repeated, but infrequently assessed for accuracy
We use primary datasets to assess if the common narratives are supported by the available data, while recognizing that even those narratives that are supported by data may not necessarily be Economies 2018, 6, 64; doi:10.3390/economies6040064
Commonly made (e.g., Mandefro 2016; Mandefro and Jerven 2015), they are justified with reference to single data points or specific years. The problem with these singular selections is that the data utilized may not be representative of the trend, which is the case for GDP growth rates, as we show below

Summary

Introduction

There are dominant narratives about the Ethiopian economy that are often repeated, but infrequently assessed for accuracy. The Government of Ethiopia has long been promoting the “Ethiopia rising” image, academics have called it the “China of Africa” (Cowen 2018), international agencies rank it as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world (World Bank 2018), and journalists have lauded its miraculous transformation (Kopf 2017). One challenge to these narratives is a line of questioning regarding the distribution of benefits of the growing economy—in other words, for whom does the economic growth benefit, and at whose expense (Haylemariam 2017). We use primary datasets to assess if the common narratives are supported by the available data, while recognizing that even those narratives that are supported by data may not necessarily be Economies 2018, 6, 64; doi:10.3390/economies6040064 www.mdpi.com/journal/economies

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