Contextualizing and Disarming Russia’s Arctic Security Posture

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe West’s approach to Russian machinations in the Arctic is too often misinformed by simplistic media storylines of militarization and zero-sum competition. While Russian behavior of late in Ukraine and Syria has hardly been reassuring, Moscow’s Arctic approach stands remarkably separate from the larger tumult of relations with the West. The prevailing focus on security enhancements across Russia’s Arctic coastline risks oversimplifying Kremlin decision calculus and distorting conflict potential. Fortunately, recent trends in the region provide greater contextualization concerning Russian security. This article examines six features of Russia’s Arctic strategy that are particularly significant when considering an effective Western counter-posture in the Arctic. Three act to mitigate the risk of confrontation, while three other factors hold the potential to aggravate the security environment, After setting the geopolitical scene with these six features, this article offers five policy suggestions for the four NATO Arctic rim states. It argues against a blunt force deterrence posture in favor of a more nuanced approach based on issue-specific cooperation so as not to unnecessarily drag the region into a larger geopolitical fight.