Contextual insight as an antecedent to strategic foresight

Abstract

This conceptual paper responds to the call by Ahlqvist and Uotila (2020) for review of the philosophical assumptions that frame the theorization of the practice of strategic foresight. Challenging the ontological and epistemological assumptions that underpin the dominant (positivist) paradigm, their interpretivist perspective offers an alternative set of assumptions on which to frame the practice of strategic foresight. We contribute to this debate on the paradigmatic framing of research into the practice of strategic foresight, by offering a social constructionist perspective through which the politics that shape the increasingly complex contexts of this practice, may be discerned. Reflecting on the ontological complexity of the concept of context, we explore the role of forms of abstract power in the apprehension and sense-making of current and future contexts and suggest ways through which their influence can be mitigated. These include the introduction of reflexive forums in which participants engage in critical dialogue focussed on generating contextual insight; the inclusion of participants drawn from beyond the institutional boundaries of the organization and from a diverse range of positions within the organization; and the conceptualization of leadership of the foresight process as a collective responsibility rather than that of management alone.