Context Matters: The Effect of Racial Composition of State Electorates on White Racial Attitudes

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the racial composition of state electorates and white racial attitudes, arguing that the racial threat hypothesis should characterize this relationship. Specifically, we make the case for why greater black electoral strength should lead to more racially conservative policy preferences and more negative racial stereotypes among whites. Our findings are consistent with this expectation. However, this relationship is dependent on two contexts. We find that black electoral strength mattered in the context of the racially-salient 2008 national elections, but not during the 2000 or 2004 elections. Also, consistent with the racial threat hypothesis, we find that black electoral strength influences racial attitudes only among whites who have greater reason to fear economic competition from African Americans. Overall, our findings are consistent with recent studies demonstrating that the influence of racial composition on white racial attitudes is dependent on context.