Context-Aware Decision Support for Anti-Submarine Warfare Mission Planning Within a Dynamic Environment

Abstract

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) missions are the linchpin of maritime operations involving effective allocation and path planning of scarce assets to search for, detect, classify, track, and prosecute hostile submarines within a dynamic and uncertain mission environment. Motivated by the need to assist ASW commanders to make better decisions within an evolving mission context, we investigate a moving target search problem with multiple searchers and develop a context-driven decision support tool for the ASW mission planning problem. Given the spatial probability distribution of a target submarine, sensor detection probability surfaces from meteorological and oceanographic products, and the risk to the fleet as a function of distance of the target from the fleet, we model and formulate the ASW asset allocation and search path planning problem using a hidden Markov modeling framework. We propose a two phase approach to solve this NP-hard problem. In phase I, we partition the geographic area, satisfying contiguity constraints, into search regions using an evolutionary algorithm (EA) coupled with a Voronoi tessellation approach, and allocate the assets to partitioned search areas using the auction algorithm. In phase II, we construct a dynamic search plan for each asset over the search interval using EA. We evaluate our approach via a hypothetical ASW scenario to monitor an enemy submarine in a geographic region via multiple assets. We compare our results to various search path planning strategies that, using the context-driven decision support tool developed here, revise the search regions at periodic intervals given a fixed total search time.