Contesting futures of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare: formal expectations meet informal anticipations

Abstract

ABSTRACT Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are expected to play an essential role in future healthcare systems for saving resources, improving treatment quality and enhancing patient safety. Governments worldwide are preparing for such a future by developing strategies and policies. Drawing on concepts and perspectives from Science and Technology Studies (STS), this article explores how government policies set the agenda for introducing AI in healthcare, using the Norwegian National Health and Hospital Plan 2020–2023 (NHSP) as an example. The article further investigates how the formal expectations included in the NHSP are met with informal anticipations expressed by actors working closer to clinical practices involved in an inquiry process initiated by the policy. Taking a qualitative approach, the article explores what characterises formal expectations of AI in healthcare and how these expectations are contested. The study finds that there are tensions between the different assumptions and that crucial issues concerning the future usage of AI are not yet on the Norwegian Government’s agenda. Pairing the forces of the formal expectations with the ambiguous concept of AI, the current chasm between AI development and deployment, and the uncertainties constituted by the contesting elements, the article concludes by introducing a paradox of inevitability.