Contested baselines and transboundary water resources management, with illustrations from the Nile

Abstract

ABSTRACT The effect of a policy intervention is estimated as the difference between a state of the world without the intervention – the dynamic baseline – and with the intervention. Negotiations on managing transboundary water resources confront three kinds of problems in specifying the dynamic baseline: unexamined baselines, uncertain baselines and contested baselines. This paper focuses on contested baselines. Controversy may arise from different ethical or political assessments of the appropriate choice of the state of the world without the policy intervention. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile highlights the importance of understanding contested baselines involving transboundary water resources.