Contemporary Resource Policy and Decoupling Trends—Lessons Learnt from Integrated Model-Based Assessments

Mark Meyer,Martin Hirschnitz-Garbers,Martin Distelkamp

doi:10.3390/su10061858

Abstract

Addressing climate change and natural resource depletion has been key to the international and national sustainability agenda for almost 30 years. Despite existing efforts, global CO2 emissions and raw material use levels continue to grow. This seems to suggest the need for more systemic approaches in environmental policy. Our paper contributes modelling results to assess the potential of efficiency improvements to achieve absolute decoupling of global raw material use and environmental impacts from economic growth. We apply the global, dynamic MRIO model GINFORS to simulate potential effects of raw material efficiency improvements in production against a climate mitigation scenario baseline. Our simulation experiments indicate that (rather radical) progress in the raw material efficiency of production technologies in concert with extensive climate mitigation efforts could enable an absolute decoupling of resource use and CO2 emissions from GDP growth at a global level and for some countries. The absolute raw material extraction levels achieved, however, still exceed the material use reduction targets suggested by sustainability scientists. Our findings highlight that achieving such targets without addressing rebound effects is implausible. Hence, we call upon policy makers to integrate rebound mitigation strategies and move beyond exclusively improving efficiency to tackling structural and behavioural changes.

Highlights

Recent trends in CO2 emissions and raw material use indicate that environmental policy finds itself at a crossroads
We present findings from a dynamic modelling study, which assumes increases in resource efficiency and assesses potential overall effects on global economic activity, CO2 emissions and raw material extraction levels
We present the findings of the simulation experiments on resource efficiency improvements in comparison to the climate active baseline

Summary

Introduction

Recent trends in CO2 emissions and raw material use indicate that environmental policy finds itself at a crossroads. These global development trends call for applying more systemic approaches in environmental policy. In its most recent report, the International Resource Panel Environment Programme in 2007) asserts that “environmental impacts—including climate change and pollution—cannot be effectively mitigated by focusing on emission abatement alone. The level of resource use determines the magnitude of final waste and emissions released to the environment, making resource management and efficiency key strategies for environmental protection. Decoupling economic activity and human well-being from resource use—i.e., enhanced resource efficiency—is necessary [ . ]” (IRP 2017 [8]) Decoupling economic activity and human well-being from resource use—i.e., enhanced resource efficiency—is necessary [ . . . ]” (IRP 2017 [8]) (p. 8)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion