Contemporary global economic crisis: Some conclusions for Russia and BRICS (taking into account Kondratieff long waves)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the origins of contemporary economic crises (2008–2020). The author suggests a relatively novel approach to the study and forecasting of the economic life of the BRICS countries and other regions within the framework of the modern Kondratieff long waves hypothesis. The author recalls that in the mid-twenties, after analyzing the results of a sufficiently deep crisis in 1920–1921, Kondratieff drew a conclusion that even more destructive perturbations in the world economy were approaching (having thus predicted the Great Depression of 1930s). In particular, Kondratieff wrote about the downswing phase of a long wave – a long turbulent period of economic instability (a period of deep economic crises). According to some Russian economists, today’s preservation of the downswing phase was correctly predicted in the framework of modern modifications of Kondratieff’s theory. Based on the hypothesis of long waves, the author predicted the global economic crisis of 2008–2010 in2006, and in the summer of 2014, he predicted many turbulent years for Russia (in particular, economic crises). The author warned of a possible aggravation of the global situation in early 2019, and such aggravation happened in 2020. Taking into account Kondratieff long waves, some new risks for the BRICS countries are analyzed in this article. In particular, the author argues that by the end of 2020, Russia’s real GDP may considerably shrink. In 2020, Russia seems to be able to take into account and use the previous experience of other BRICS countries which largely succeeded in mitigating external shocks in 2009 (for example, the experience of China and India).