Abstract
When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections are substantial for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the feasibility of preventing the major epidemic has been questioned. Using a two-type branching process model, the present study assesses the feasibility of containing COVID-19 by computing the probability of a major epidemic. We show that if there is a substantial number of asymptomatic transmissions, cutting chains of transmission by means of contact tracing and case isolation would be very challenging without additional interventions, and in particular, untraced cases contribute to lowering the feasibility of containment. Even if isolation of symptomatic cases is conducted swiftly after symptom onset, only secondary transmissions after the symptom onset can be prevented.
Highlights
Since a major epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) took off in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, the magnitude of the epidemic quickly sparked globally, leading us to observe a substantial number of cases across borders
Very few asymptomatic infections for Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have been documented, and asymptomatic individuals have not been documented to contribute to a substantial number of secondary transmissions [9]
Compared with SARS, published studies have suggested that there is a substantial number of pre-symptomatic transmissions, and asymptomatic infections are not uncommon, posing a pressing question over the feasibility of containment of COVID-19 [11]
Summary
Since a major epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) took off in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, the magnitude of the epidemic quickly sparked globally, leading us to observe a substantial number of cases across borders. Compared with SARS, published studies have suggested that there is a substantial number of pre-symptomatic transmissions, and asymptomatic infections are not uncommon, posing a pressing question over the feasibility of containment of COVID-19 [11].
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