Contagion Effects on Stock Market of Bangladesh

Abstract

Due to increased globalization and economic integration in the global economy, contagion effects have been considered an important matter for the investors and policymakers. In the wake of the global financial crisis of September 2008, Islamic financial products were thrust into the spotlight as alternatives to the shaken conventional equity markets. The objective of this study is to discover the Islamic stock market dynamics of Bangladesh with the global Islamic stock markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Europe, UK and Japan. For understanding long run relationship or the theoretical relationships among the Islamic stock market and short run co-movements among Islamic stocks, Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) have been applied respectively. Furthermore, the investigation on short run dynamics is also carried through Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses. The study found that the Japanese Islamic Stock market is affected to changes in other Islamic stock markets while Kuwait stock market is the leader in the sense it affects other stock market greatly. Bangladeshi Islamic stock market is found to be marginally affecting other stock markets but not as strong as Kuwait. Global Islamic stock market seems to have very little impact to Bangladesh Islamic stock market. The evidence of co-integration and short run dynamics help a diversification benefit may be derived from the cross boarder investment. The empirical evidence of co-integration and short run dynamic relationship found in this study will help investors in making efficient investment decisions and also enhance their understanding of market behavior.