Consumption Upgrading and Industrial Structural Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis and Empirical Test with Low-Carbon Green Transition Constraints

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To clarify the relations between low-carbon green transition, consumption upgrading, and industrial structure change, this paper firstly builds a dynamic model of the three, then uses the PVAR Model and panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2020 to carry out empirical study from the rationalization and upgrading dimensions of industrial structural change, respectively. The results are as follows: (1) Low-carbon green transition and consumption upgrading are Granger causes of each other. In this causal relationship, low-carbon green transition hinders consumption upgrading, but consumption upgrading significantly promotes low-carbon green transition. (2) Low-carbon green transition plays a facilitating and hindering role in industrial structure rationalization and upgrading, respectively. However, from the different dimensions of industrial structure change, only industrial structure upgrading has a significant reverse hindering effect on low-carbon green transition, and the reverse effect of industrial structure rationalization on low-carbon green transition is not significant. (3) Consumption upgrading has a hindering and promoting effect on the rationalization of industrial structure in the short- and long-run respectively, and a promoting and hindering effect on the industrial structure upgrading respectively; however, only industrial structure upgrading significantly promotes consumption upgrading in the opposite direction, while industrial structure rationalization has no significant effect on consumption upgrading. These findings propose some suggestions such as advocating the new way of green consumption, constructing and improving the green whole industry chain, and strengthening the synergy between imitative innovation and independent innovation.