Consumption Heterogeneity by Occupation: Understanding the Impact of Occupation on Personal Consumption During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Unemployment rates reached unprecedented levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. The nature of the virus transmission, and the policy interventions enacted in response, however, is such that certain "high risk" occupations suffered more than the "low risk" occupations. This paper exploits the variation in the unemployment rate of different occupations to analyze the response of (real-time) consumption spending to unemployment risk. We find that during the first five weeks of the pandemic, higher occupational unemployment risk did not result in lower relative spending. However, in later weeks as the pandemic proceeded, higher occupational unemployment risk resulted in lower relative spending. We attribute this change to the evolution of perceptions regarding unemployment risk, and the expiration of stimulus payments and expanded unemployment insurance benefits provided under the CARES Act. We also create an alternative metric, based on job characteristics, to predict the riskiness of different occupations. We find that high risk occupations were those that were unable to work from home, were required to work in close physical proximity to others, and were essential.