Consumer Credit Models

Abstract

Credit scoring — the quantitative and statistical techniques which assess the credit risks when lending to consumers — has been one of the most successful if unsung applications of mathematics in business for the last fifty years. Now though, credit scoring is beginning to be used in relation to other decisions rather than the traditional one of assessing the default risk of a potential borrower. Lenders are changing their objectives from minimizing defaults to maximizing profits; using the internet and the telephone as application channels means lenders can price or customize their loans for individual consumers. The introduction of the Basel Capital Accord banking regulations and the credit crunch following the problems with securitizing sub prime mortgage mean one needs to be able to extend the default risk models from individual consumer loans to portfolios of such loans. Addressing these challenges requires new models that use credit scores as inputs. These in turn require extensions of what is meant by a credit score. This book reviews the current methodology for building scorecards, clarifies what a credit score really is, and the way that scoring systems are measured. It then looks at the models that can be used to address a number of these new challenges: how to obtain profitability based scoring systems; pricing new loans in a way that reflects their risk and also customise them to attract consumers; how the Basel Accord impacts on way credit scoring; and how credit scoring can be extended to assess the credit risk of portfolios of loans.