Abstract
To explore the relations between the number of accident deaths (NCD) and various factors in construction safety, a multiple linear regression model was established, based on the panel data of economy, construction labor, and the number of accident deaths in 31 provinces (regions) of China from 2009 to 2018. The results show that the average total profits and taxes (TPAT), and the death rate of ten thousand people (DR) are positively correlated with NCD, while the labor productivity (LP) is negatively correlated with it. Under the condition that other factors remain unchanged, NCD increases by 0.02 per a hundred million CNY. However, if DR increases by one ten thousand, NCD will increase by 8.66 on average. On the contrary, when LP increases by a hundred million CNY per ten thousand people, NCD decreases by 0.19. The model also predicts NCD in different provinces and cities from 2019 to 2020 with the method of quadratic exponential smoothing. As well, practice results show that the model is effective and practical.
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